The 678k increase in nonfarm payrolls in February, upward revisions to prior months, and another cycle low for the unemployment rate at 3.8% suggest that the labor market has tightened further since then. As of December, the total number of jobs (both filled and unfilled) stands 2.8% above the total number of workers, the biggest gap in postwar history. The oil price increase is hitting a US economy that is already overheating. And if Russian gas stopped flowing entirely, the area-wide gas hit could rise to 2.2% for the year as a whole.Ĥ. A more adverse scenario in which Russian gas shipments through Ukraine are curtailed could cut Euro area GDP by around 1% for gas alone, with Germany and Italy most affected. In a baseline scenario where Russian gas keeps flowing and the issue is merely one of higher prices, our European economics team estimates another 0.6% GDP hit from natural gas in 2022, for a total negative energy impact of 1.2%. The Euro area is likely to see a double whammy from both oil and natural gas prices. Where consumers are hit by another cost of living blow, and a more modest 0.3% in the US, where consumers also lose out but increased domestic production and investment in shale provides a partial offset.ģ. We estimate that a sustained $20 shock will lower real GDP by 0.6% in the Euro area, Reflecting these concerns, the crisis has already pushed up Brent and WTI benchmark crude prices by more than $20/barrel, and our commodity strategists see a potential for further gains. In fact, it is possible that any Western oil sanctions-which are gaining increasing support in Congress-would also apply to third countries. But this “rearrangement of the deck chairs” isn’t perfect, not only because of increased transport costs and other technical frictions but also because China and India may be reluctant to increase their imports and corresponding payments sharply at a time when Russia is becoming a global pariah. If Western countries buy less Russian oil, China and India could in principle buy more Russian oil and correspondingly less Saudi and other oil, which can then flow to the West. And it is huge in natural gas, where Russia supplies 17% of global consumption and as much as 40% of Western European consumption as of 2021.Ģ. It is considerably larger in oil, where Russia supplies 11% of global consumption. The potential shift is fairly small at an aggregate level, as Russia accounts for less than 2% of global goods trade and GDP. Reducing trade with a current account surplus country via sanctions and boycotts means that the rest of the world needs to produce a larger share of what it consumes. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine-and the Western response to it-will exacerbate the supply-demand imbalance that lies at the heart of the global inflation surge. Vex, where bring artists, creators and crypto enthusiasts on a single platform to purchase, sell and trade exclusive NFTs.1. Vex: The decentralized NFT exchange (Launched in September, 2021) Where you create/mint your own NFTs or warrant your NFTs.
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